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Thursday, September 21, 2006
 
Boger All.

Vietnam has been in the news again recently. This is one of those stories that has evolved slowly in my consciousness as over a period of time. First I saw a couple of BBC articles on release of political prisoners BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Vietnam frees dissident from jail . The articles state this was being done in advance of note-worthy international conference. The 2006 APEC Conference VN. They also said President Bush will be attending final phase of this year long event in Hanoi. The 14th APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting 18 -19 November 2006 The official website of APEC Viet Nam 2006

At some point, having these spare facts running around my mind, I asked Tran (Tran of the left nav bar) if she knew about this and what she thought. She noted part they are releasing some political prisoners but not others. Pham Hong Son mentioned in the article imprisoned on non regime threatening charge: translating and promulgating a State Department article on democracy. Another political prisoner is still imprisoned for a more spectacularly subversive activity which apparently involved flying a plane across the border and dropping flyers across the south calling for an end to one party rule in Vietnam. This succeeded in attracting the attention of the authorities. There seems to be a class of political prisoners that are deliberately held on a range of charges for the convenient purpose of releasing them graciously at opportune moments. A congressional hearing held last year while Prime Minister Khai was in the US on a state visit reviews this in some considerable depth Human Rights in Vietnam covering the continuing Orderly Departure Program, related Humanitarian Operation, and Dr. Nguyen Dan Que's 9 point roadmap to democracy in Vietnam (religious tolerance, separation of party and state, multiparty elections...)

I couldn't remember if I had heard of this organization before; the Asia -Pacific Economic cooperative (APEC) Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. There are more of these international conferences than its healthy to keep track of. This one seems to have been started by the Australians in 1989. It bills itself as a Multilateral Economic Forum and has no binding tenants on its members. Its mission to meet the Bogor Goals of free and open trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific by 2010 for developed economies and 2020 for developing economies (if they need a slogan; I suggest 'Boger-All'). APEC focuses on three key areas ('Three Pillars'): (1) Trade and Investment Liberalization (2) Business Facilitation (3) Economic and Technical Cooperation Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. With APEC the process is everything. It is a mass set of standing committees on a myriad of topics that move between annually hosting nations like the progress of a medieval king's court. Comparing it to other international bodies: the G8 conference, ASEAN (and its AFTA) it seems most like a smaller and regional based WTO. The WTO's own list of fundamentals WTO | website includes that "A trading system should tend toward more freedom, should be predictable, tend toward greater competition, and should be more accommodating for less developed countries, giving them more time to adjust, greater flexibility, and more privileges." APEC exemplifies the modern international organization of the globalization era, Taipei Times - archives Take an alternative look at APEC.

The U S secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson made a scheduled pass through APEC vn. Underscoring its practical relation to larger trade regimes, he used the occasion and example of APEC to call for a renewal of the WTO's grounded Doha round US Treasury Secretary to push trade liberalisation at APEC meeting. Earlier APEC was credited with kick starting a stall in the WTO's  Uraguay round. Normal trade relations between Vietnam and the U S are an effective prerequisite for WTO membership for Vietnam. Its seems it is desired to have this achieved ahead of the Leaders meeting in November. Not normally following economic news (despite an econ minor in college) it was instructive to see that Paulson next went to China on this trip where he pronounced on the fragile nature of the Chinese economy Why US speaks softly with China on trade | csmonitor.com and tried delicately to interest the Chinese on a minor devaluation of their currency In China, Paulson's Currency Is Patience - washingtonpost.com. On which success hinged forestalling punitive tariff bills in congress on his return Paulson Ends China Visit With Little Progress but Gratified to Be Talking - New York Times.

Going back to my earlier discussion with Tran. I had taken the position that trade and globalizing ties are always better than no ties. A position that even Paul Krugman might hold Enemies of the WTO Bogus arguments against the World Trade Organization.. In simplest terms investment and development will equal jobs and increased standards of living. Her response took me a little aback. On investment she claims Vietnamese leaders are accepting Asian investment, EU and American investments and even, if not especially, from Vietnamese ex pats. French-Vietnamese, British-German-Australian-Vietnamese, but (she claims) pointedly not American-Vietnamese investment. This may have been true, but  may be in the process of changing. As an article in the Washington Post Sunday magazine from last year suggests (Ellen Nakashima, "Coming Home," Washington Post Magazine 12 june 2005. 10) and more recently this Asia news roundup from a Honolulu radio station Asia News - ASIA: Thursday, September 14, 2006- HANOI, Vietnam: - "...Yet, at the same time, many thousands of those who fled over the past two and a half decades are starting to return, and the Vietnamese government is welcoming them, and their money, with open arms" [the context here is the UN's Orderly Departure Program where those Vietnamese unwilling to forbear lifelong discrimination and reeducation to communism were gradually allowed to emigrate].

Further regarding jobs she pointed out: If the Party controls who gets the jobs in the economic growth initiated by this investment. This does not and will not help the poorest minority populations within Vietnam (particular those populations in the south associated with the former regime) It goes to those already favored and exacerbates existing divides. Over all she seemed troubled why Americans in general and President Bush in particular don't seem understand this. Tran does not like communists much.

As the President prepares for his trip to Hanoi in November which seems scripted already as a triumphant welcoming of Vietnam into the realm of free trading nations lets review a few practical considerations. For any investment U S interest should strive for comprehensive economic development investment schemes. Tying factory building to education and urban affairs (such as housing). Investment should look for assurances giving corporate factory operators autonomy in hiring. Further the President should voice specific requests for allowing American Vietnamese who constitute the greatest part of the 470 000 Vietnamese have left since 1975 to participate economically in Vietnam's future.

A minor coda to this post. One of the things the APEC conferences are known for is having gathered dignitaries dress in the national costumes or clothing of the host nation. Note the picture of Secretary Paulson in this BBC story BBC NEWS | Business | Apec urged to push trade talks on. The thought occurs that if Laura Bush accompanies the President on this trip she may find herself wearing an Ao Dai at some point. Who says economics has to be dull.


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