Selected commentary and short
articles
VoxEU and my Profile,
Carmen M. Reinhart
Podcast on:
The First
Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century
(with
Andrew Felton, eds.). (London: A VoxEU, CEPR
Publication, July 2008).
The
Next (but not new) Frontier for Sovereign Default, May 22, 2008.
Eight Hundred
Years of Financial Folly, April 19, 2008.
(in French)
Telos, April 24, 2008.
Reflections on the International Dimensions and Policy Lessons of
the U.S. Subprime Crisis, March 17, 2008.
(in Italian)
Lavoce.info,
April 9, 2008.
NBER Digest and
Reporter
The Forgotten
History of Domestic Debt,
NBER Digest (Cambridge: NBER, forthcoming
2008).
Capital Inflows
and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence,
NBER Digest (Cambridge: NBER, forthcoming
2008).
Some Perspectives on Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies,
NBER Reporter (Cambridge: NBER, Summer,
2005). My
NBER
profile in that issue.
Serial Default and Capital Flows,
NBER Digest,
(Cambridge: NBER, August 2004).
No Gain from
Reducing G-3 Currency Volatility, NBER Digest,
(Cambridge: NBER, January
2002).
Selected recent press article citations, testimony,
interviews, and miscellaneous
Watch Out for Sovereign Debt Risk,
(with Kenneth S. Rogoff), Wall Street Journal: Opinion, June 24,
2008.
Inflation: A short history,
Wall Street Journal, India (Livemint), Niranjan Rajadhyaksha,
June 10, 2008.
Argentine alert as inflation
spectre stalks half the world, UK Telegraph, Ambrose
Evens-Pritchard, June 2, 2008.
This Time is Different:
A
Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises (with Kenneth
S. Rogoff). NBER
Working Paper 13882,
PODCAST-NEC#60 of my presentation at the
National Economists
Club on May 27, 2008.
International
Banking: Paradise lost, The Economist, May 17, 2008.
Why financial regulation is both difficult and essential,
The Financial Times, Martin Wolf,
April 15 2008.
Can the
US Avert a Japan-Style Economic Bust? Christian Science
Monitor, Mark Trumbull, March 21, 2008
The
Bear Trap, Time Magazine, Justin Fox, March 20, 2008
News You Need to Know: Same old crisis? BusinessWeek,
March 3, 2008.
Testimony before the House Financial Services Committee,
February 24, 2008.
Featured in: The Dow Jones
Newswire, February 26, and The
Wall Street Journal February
27.
Just a mild case of the Reinhart and Rogoffs, The Herald, UK,
Alf Young, February 12, 2008.
Analysts Weigh Recession Forecast, National Public Radio,
January 23, 2008.
A Recession, If It
Comes, Could Be Worse Than Those of Recent Past, Wall Street
Journal, Justin Lahart, January 21, 2008.
Economic Focus: Same As It Ever Was, What Do Earlier Banking Crises
Reveal About America's Travails Today? The Economist,
January 10, 2008
Presentation before InterAmerican Development Bank Board of Directors,
Debt Intolerance, June 2, 2004.
Comment & Analysis: The new face of
the IMF: what could Rodrigo Rato do to reshape its role as guardian of
the global economy?,
The Financial Times, April 21, 2004. (section on The debt
dilemma)
Literary economics-a short, handy history and "promiscuous bonding"
Financial Times, John Plender, July 14, 2003.
Carmen Reinhart alerts me to another timely quote--from Max
Winkler in 1927....While a high yield on a foreign bond does not
necessarily indicate inferior quality...
Promiscuous buying, however, is destined to prove disastrous. (PS The
emerging market defaults began in earnest in 1928) xxxxxxyyyyyyyyy
Global outlook: Countries with a "fear of floating," Financial Times,
Alan Beatie, January 8, 2002
The IMF and World Bank,
Finance and Development and
IMF Survey
IMF Research conference honors Guillermo Calvo, IMF
Survey, Vol. 33 No.10, May 31, 2004.
...Kaminsky and Reinhart analyzed how financial turbulence
spreads across borders...
The
Realities of Modern Hyperinflation
(with Miguel A.
Savastano), Finance and Development, (Washington DC:
International Monetary Fund, June 2003), 20-23.
In brief: More accurate exchange rate classifications. Finance and Development
Vol. 39 No. 3., September 2002.
Is
a G-3 Target Zone on Target for Emerging Markets?
(with
Vincent R. Reinhart), Finance and Development, Vol. 39 No. 1,
(Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, March 2002), 17-19.
Interview: Reinhart examines theory and practice in addressing financial
crises, IMF Survey, Vol.30, No. 11,
June 6, 2001.
Country-specific Needs Still Dictate Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes,
IMF Survey, Vol. April 16, 2001
.. Although there is a "lot of talk" in emerging markets about
moving to floating regimes and adopting inflation targeting, in
practice, many countries have not adopted true floating-rate regimes,
according to Carmen Reinhart of the ...
Mirage of Floating
Exchange Rates. Discussion, IMF Survey,
Vol. 29, No. 2, January 24, 2000.
..
markets has suggested to many observers that countries trying to peg in
a world of mobile capital are “fighting against the wind,” Carmen
Reinhart of the ...
Capital
Flow Reversals, The Exchange Rate Debate, and Dollarization
(with
Guillermo A. Calvo), Finance and Development, Vol. 36, No.3,
(Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, September 1999), 13-15.
Monetary and Trade Conference: Participants Debate Benefits of
Globalization, IMF Survey, Vol. 24 No. 3, Vol. 28,
No. 12, December 13, 1999.
... Economists say that each crisis is “a new breed of crisis,”
according to Carmen Reinhart, but she contended that all
crises have similar characteristics. ...
Conference on IMF Reform, IMF Survey,
Vol. 24 No. 3, Vol. 28, No. 12, June 21, 1999.
...
But as Guillermo Calvo and Carmen Reinhart noted, industrial and
developing countries part company in the developments following a
speculative attack...
... Some objected to the “short shrift” Calvo and Reinhart
gave to floating. ...
Asian crisis impact, Global Economic Prospects, Are Among Issues
Discussed by AEA Panels, IMF Survey, Vol. No.,January 25,
1999.
...as to contagion...when the crises erupted, banks pulled out not only
of those countries that encountered problems but from other markets
too...
Mundell Festschrift: Conference Focuses on Currency Crises, Prospects
for EMU, IMF Survey, Vol. 26 No. 21, November,
17, 1997.
...
In a panel discussion, Paul Krugman of the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland, and
John Williamson of the ...
Range of Indicators May Provide Warning Systems for Currency Crises,
IMFSurvey, Vol. 26, No. 16, August 18, 1997
Managing Capital Flows
in Emerging Market Economies, IMF Survey, Vol. 24 No. 3, December 11, 1995.
...Carmen Reinhart observed contagion among open economies does
not require the presence of animal spirits--namely highly integrated
capital markets...
Selected older press article citations, testimony,
interviews, and miscellaneous
Who
Under in the
World's Sea of Cash?
The New York Times, Nicholas Kristof with
Edward Wyatt, February 15, 1999.
Rating agencies warn too late and since 1979...they react after crises
instead of anticipating them.
Capital curbs should only be temporary, say economists,
The Straits
Times (Singapore), William Choong, Septemebr 6, 1998.
A Gathering Economic
Storm?
Washington Post, Robert J. Samuelson,
November 19, 1997.
"What were seeing today is the tail end of the capital flow cycle," says
economist Carmen Reinhart...
Asia Woes Revive Fears of Capital Flight: Nations, Economists Debate
Controls to Stem Outflows, The Wall Street Journal, Michael
Phillips, November 7, 1997.
(controls on capital inflows)...Carmen Reinhart says...can shift the
composition, but have not had a significant impact on the overall volume
of inflows that you get..."
There
may be trouble ahead--It is not easy to predict when and where currency
crises will strike, The Financial Times, Robert Chote, August 4,
1997.
And now for a taste of the "Tom" "Yum", The Economic Times
(India), August 3, 1997.
The more stunning statistics come from a study by Kaminsky and Reinhart....in 18 of 25 bank crises, the financial system was
liberalized in the five years
preceding the crisis...The implication being that lack of regulatory
mechanism for banks was the trigger for banking crises.
¿Sintomas de crisis financiera? El Tiempo (Colombia), June 26,
1997.
The recession following the boom in credit and consumption, the fall in
real estate prices, the overvaluation of the exchange rate,and the
overindebtedness
of most Colombians could mean trouble. Reinhart. (PS, the
summer of 1998 was the worst recession and crisis since the publication
of statistics in the early 1920s.)
The cost of the crisis reaches 3 million pesos, El Financiero, (Mexico),
October 18, 1996.
Tardara el pais 5 años para sanear su sistema financiero: Reinhart
Economic Focus: In Pursuit of thrift, does liberalising
financial markets boost saving in poor countries?
The Economist,
March 15, 1996.
Capital Inflows Surge to Latin America, Journal of Commerce and
Miami Herald, September
24, 1992.
El trabajo elaborado por el argentino Guillermo Calvo y la
cubana-norteamericana Carmen Reinhart, del Departamento de
Investigaciones del FMI...
Latin America at Risk of Capital Flight; Capital Inflows Owe to "Foreign
Factors,"
Rossana Fuentes-Berain, El Financiero (Mexico),
Septemeber 3, 1992.
Economic Diary: Consumer Debt Really Isn't So Staggering,
BusinessWeek, October 21, 1985.
Economic Diary: The Achilles' Heel in Private Credit Growth,
BusinessWeek, December 3, 1984.
On the credit boom...One possible explanation hazarded by economists
Robert M. Sinche and Carmen M. Reinhart of Bear Stearns & Co. is
that borrowers have been
undaunted by the apparently forbidding level of real rates because they
expect a pick up in inflation to erode those rates in the
not-too-distant future.
Oil Price Drop: Blue-Collar Boom,
Philadelphia Inquirer,
May 4, 1986.
The farther
down the economic ladder, the bigger the relative boost from cheaper oil
products, adds Carmen M. Reinhart of the Wall Street firm of Bear
Stearns...
Most
Interest Rates Are Little Changed Despite a Flood of New Corporate
Issues, The Wall Street
Journal, Tom Herman and Edward Foldessy,
February 26, 1986.
"Oil is
a symbol of inflation, and inflationary expectations are eroding
right along with oil prices, " said Carmen M. Reinhart, chief
economist of Bear, Stearns & Co. "It will take a little
time for lower oil prices to show up in the consumer price
index."
