Papers and Publications
Books
The First
Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century
(with
Andrew Felton, eds.). (London: A VoxEU, CEPR
Publication, July 2008).
Money, Crisis, and Transition: Essays in Honor of Guillermo A. Calvo
(with Carlos A. Végh and Andrés Velasco, eds.). Forthcoming
(Cambridge: MIT Press, 2008).
Ratings,
Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System
(with Richard Levich, and
Giovanni. Majnoni), (New York: Kluwer Academic Press, 2002).
Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for
Emerging Markets (with Morris Goldstein and
Graciela Kaminsky), (Washington, DC: Institute
for International Economics, 2000).
Accounting
for Saving: Financial Liberalization, Capital Flows, and Growth in
Latin America and Europe, (Washington DC: John
Hopkins University Press for the Inter-American
Development Bank,1999).
Papers by
topics
Exchange rates
and dollarization
Exchange Rate Arrangements
Entering the
21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold? (with Ethan O.
Ilzetzki, and Kenneth S. Rogoff). Coming soon. This
new paper includes updates (NOW AVAILABLE ONLINE, see below)
to the exchange rate regime classifications in The
Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation
(with
Kenneth S. Rogoff)
Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(1):1-48, February 2004
Background material for "Exchange Rate Arrangements Entering the
21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?"
The
Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation
(with
Kenneth S. Rogoff) NBER Working Paper 8963, 2002. Revised
version March 2003, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.
CXIX No. 1, February 2004, 1-48.
Background
Material to the Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A
Reintepretation? Part I. Part II.
STATA files with Natural Classification from The
Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation. Readme
File, Monthly
classification, 1946-2001, Annual
classification,1946-2001. The monthly
data for official and market-determined exchange rates from The
Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation.
Addicted to
Dollars (with Keneth S. Rogoff and
Miguel A. Savastano) NBER Working Paper 10015.
Twin Fallacies About
Exchange Rate Policy in Emerging Markets (with Vincent
R. Reinhart), Moneda y Crédito Vol. 216, (2003), 11-29.
What Hurts Most: G-3
Exchange Rate or Interest Rate Volatility? (with Vincent
R. Reinhart) in Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey Frankel, eds. Preventing
Currency Crises in Emerging Markets (Chicago: University of
Chicago Press for the NBER, 2001), 73-99. See also
NBER Digest,
(Cambridge: NBER, January
2002).
Fixing
for Your Life (with
Guillermo A. Calvo), in Susan Collins and Dani Rodrik, eds., Brookings
Trade Forum 2000 (Washington, DC:
Brookings Institution, 2001), 1-39.
Fear
of Floating (with
Guillermo A. Calvo) NBER Working Paper version. Revised
version, Figure
1 of revised version, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.
CXVII No. 2, May 2002, 379-408. Background material, Variance
ratios.
The
Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates, American
Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 2, May 2000, 65-70. Discussion
of this paper in the January 24, 2000 IMF
Survey.
What
Does a G-3 target Zone Mean for Emerging Market Economies?
(with
Vincent R. Reinhart), Figure
1 (longer version).
Finance and Development,
Vol. 39 No. 1, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, March
2002), 17-19.
Devaluation,
Relative Prices, and Trade,
IMF Staff Papers,
Vol. 42, No. 2, June 1995, 290-312.
Targeting
the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence (with
Guillermo A. Calvo and Carlos A. Végh), Journal of Development
Economics, Vol. 47, June 1995, 97-133.
Financial and debt crises
The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt
(with Kenneth S. Rogoff). NBER Working Paper
13946, April 2008.
This Time is Different: A
Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises
(with Kenneth
S. Rogoff). NBER
Working Paper 13882, March 2008. For a summary, see
Eight Hundred
Years of Financial Folly in
www.VoxEU.org April 19, 2008.
Is The 2007 U.S. Subprime Crisis So Different? An International
Historical Comparison (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) , forthcoming in American
Economic Review, May 2008.
Serial
Default and the "Paradox" of Rich to Poor Capital Flows
(with Kenneth S. Rogoff), American Economic Review,
Vol. 94, No. 2, May 2004, 53-59. See also
NBER Digest
(Cambridge: NBER, August 2004).
Debt
Intolerance
(with Kenneth
S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano), Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1 Spring 2003, 1-74.
Credit
Ratings, Default, and Financial Crises: Evidence from Emerging Markets,
World Bank Economic Review 2002, Vol. 16 No. 2, 2002,
151-170.
Sovereign
Credit Ratings Before and After Financial Crises, in Richard
Levich, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Giovanni Majnoni, (eds.) Ratings,
Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System (New
York: Kluwer Academic Press 2002), 251-268.
The
Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems
(with Graciela L. Kaminsky), American Economic Review,
Vol.89 No.4, June 1999, 473-500. For a Zip file containing twenty
Excel spreadsheets (one per country) of the data used in this study
click on data
base.
Leading
Indicators of Currency Crises (with Graciela L. Kaminsky
and J. Saul Lizondo), International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol.
45 No.1, March 1998, 1-48.
Financial
Crises in Latin America: Then and Now (with Graciela L.
Kaminsky), American Economic Review, Vol. 88, May 1998,
444-449.
Contagion
When In Peril
Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion (with Fernando Broner and Gaston Gelos). Journal of International Economics,
Vol. 6 No. 1, June 2006, 203-230.
The Unholy Trinity of
Financial Contagion (with Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carlos
A.Végh), Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 17 No. 4. Fall
2003, 51-74.
The Center and the
Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Shocks (with
Graciela L. Kaminsky), NBER Working Paper 9479, February 2003.
Forthcoming
in Carmen M. Reinhart,
Carlos A. Végh and Andres Velasco (eds.) Money, Crisis, and
Transition: Essays in Honor of Guillermo A. Calvo.
(Cambridge: MIT Press, 2008).
Two
Hundred Years of Contagion
(with Graciela L. Kaminsky and
Carlos A. Végh).
Bank
Lending and Contagion: Evidence From the Asian Crisis (with
Graciela L. Kaminsky) in Takatoshi Ito and Anne Krueger (eds.) Regional
and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences (Chicago:
University of Chicago Press for the NBER, 2001), 73-99.
Financial
Markets in Times of Stress (with Graciela L.
Kaminsky), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 69 No. 2,
December 2003, 451-470.
On
Crises Contagion and Confusion
(with Graciela L. Kaminsky),
Journal of International Economics, Vol. 51 No. 1, June
2000, 145-168.
Capital
Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects? (with
Sara Calvo) in Guillermo A. Calvo, Morris Goldstein, Eduard
Hochreiter (eds.) Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
After the Mexican Crisis, (Washington, DC: Institute
for International Economics, 1996), 151-171 .
Capital flows
Capital Flow Bonanzas:
Past and Present, (with Vincent R. Reinhart) in Jeffrey Frankel and
Francesco Giavazzi (eds.) NBER International Seminar in
Macroeconomics 2008, (Chicago: Chicago University
Press for NBER, forthcoming).
Capital
Inflows and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence (with
Vincent R. Reinhart), NBER Working Paper
13842, March 2008. Spreadsheet with
cross-country reserve
requirements data
When
It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Policies
(with Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carlos A.Végh). in Mark Gertler and
Kenneth S. Rogoff, (eds.) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004.
Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 11-53.
Serial
Default and the "Paradox" of Rich to Poor Capital Flows
(with
Kenneth S. Rogoff), American Economic Review, Vol. 94, No. 2,
May 2004, 53-59. See also
NBER Digest,
(Cambridge: NBER, August 2004).
FDI
to Africa: The Role of Price Stability and Currency Instability (with
Kenneth S. Rogoff), in B. Plesovic and N. Stern, Annual
World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2002:
The New Reform Agenda. (Washington DC: The
World Bank/Oxford University Press, 2002), 247-282.
When
Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options
(with Guillermo A. Calvo) in Peter Kenen and Alexandre
Swoboda, Key Issues in Reform of the International
Monetary and Financial System, (Washington DC:
International Monetary Fund, 2000), 175-201.
The
Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s
(with Peter Montiel) in Stephany Griffith-Jones, Manuel
Montes, eds., Short-term Capital Movements and Balance of
Payments Crises, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000),
3-28.
The
Consequences and Management of Capital Inflows: Lessons for
Sub-Saharan Africa (with Guillermo A. Calvo), Expert
Group on Development Issues Series, 1998:2, (Stockholm: Almqvist
and Wiksell International, 1999).
On
the Use of Reserve Requirements to Deal With the Capital Flow Problem
(with Vincent R. Reinhart), International Journal of
Finance and Economics, Vol. 4 No.1, January1999, 27-54.
Capital
Flows and Saving in Latin America and Asia: A Reinterpretation (with
Ernesto Talvi) Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 57 No.
1, October 1998, 45-66.
Some
Lessons for Policymakers Who Deal With the Mixed Blessing of Capital
Inflows (with Vincent R. Reinhart) in Capital
Flows and Financial Crises, Miles Kahler, Ed., (Ithaca,
NY: Cornell University Press, 1998), 93-127.
Capital
Flows to Developing Countries in the 1990s: Causes and
Effects (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman)
Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 10, Spring 1996,
123-139.
Capital Flows in the APEC Region
(with Mohsin S. Khan), IMF Occasional Paper 122, (Washington DC:
International Monetary Fund, April 1995).
The
Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts and Issues
(with
Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), Contemporary Economic
Policy, Vol. XII No. 3, July 1994, 54-66.
Capital
Inflows to Latin America: The 1970s and 1990s (with
Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), in Edmar Bacha, ed. Economics
in a Changing World, Vol. 4 Development, Trade and the
Environment, (London: Macmillan Press, 1994), 123-148.
Capital
Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role
of External Factors (with Guillermo A. Calvo and
Leonardo Leiderman), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 40 No. 1, March
1993, 108-151.
Capital controls
Capital Controls: An Evaluation
(with
Nicolas Magud), NBER Working Paper 11973, Sebastian
Edwards (ed.), Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging
Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences (Chicago:
Chicago University Press for the NBER, 2007).
Stopping
Hot Money: On the Use of Capital Controls During Financial Crises
(with Hali Edison), Journal of Development Economics, Vol.
66 No. 2 December 2001, 533-553.
Capital
Controls During Financial Crises: The Case of Malaysia and Thailand
(with Hali Edison), in Reuven Glick ed. Financial Crises in
Emerging Markets (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001),
427-456.
Temporary
Controls on Capital Inflows
(with Todd Smith) Journal
of International Economics, Vol. 57 No. 2, December 2002,
327-351.
Do
Capital Controls Influence the Volume and Composition of Capital
Flows? Evidence from the 1990s (with Peter Montiel), Journal
of International Money and Finance, Vol. 18 No. 4, August 1999,
619-635.
Too
Much of a Good Thing: The Macroeconomic Effects of Taxing Capital
Inflows (with Todd Smith), in Reuven Glick, ed. Managing
Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: Perspectives from the Pacific Basin,
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), 436-464.
Consumption and saving
Saving
in Latin America and Lessons from Europe: An Overview (with
William Plies) in Accounting for Saving: Financial
Liberalization, Capital Flows, and Growth in Latin America and Europe,
(Washington DC: John Hopkins University Press for the Inter-American
Development Bank, 1999), 3-47.
Intertemporal
Subsitution and Durable Goods: The Long Run Data (with
Masao Ogaki), Economics Letters, Vol. 61 No. 1, October 1998,
85-90.
Measuring
Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods (with
Masao Ogaki), Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 106 No.5,
1998, 1078-1098.
Saving
Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison
(with Masao Ogaki and Jonathan Ostry), IMF Staff Papers,
Vol. 43, No. 1, March 1996, 38-71.
Private
Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries
(with Jonathan Ostry) IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39 No.
3, September 1992, 495-517.
Financial sector, stabilization, and
macroeconomic fluctuations
When It Rains, It Pours:
Procyclical Capital Flows and Policies
(with Graciela L.
Kaminsky and Carlos A.Végh). in Mark Gertler and Kenneth S. Rogoff,
eds. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004. Cambridge,
Mass: MIT Press, 11-53.
The Lending Channel in Emerging
Economies: Are Foreign Banks Different?
(with Marco Arena
and Francisco Vazquez), NBER Working Paper 12340, June 2006.
Financial Liberalization: The African Experience (with
Ioannis Tokatlidis), Journal of African Economies, Vol. 12
Supplement 2, 2003, 53-88.
Before
and After Financial Liberalization (with Ioannis
Tokatlidis),
MPRA Paper 6986, University Library of
Munich, Germany. 2005.
Nominal
Interest Rates, Consumption Booms, and Lack of Credibility: A
Quantitative Examination (with Carlos A.Végh), Journal
of Development Economics, Vol. 46 No. 2, April
1995, 357-378.
Output
Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia (with
Vincent R. Reinhart), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38 No. 4,
December 1991, 705-735.
Commodity Prices
The
Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices (with
Eduardo Borensztein), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41 No. 2, June
1994, 236-261.
Commodity
Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?
(with
Peter Wickham), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41 No. 2, June 1994,
175-213.
Fiscal
Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices, IMF
Staff Papers, Vol. 38 No. 3, September 1991, 506-524.
The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices
(with Eduardo Borensztein, Mohsin S. Khan, and Peter Wickham), IMF
Occasional Paper 112, (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund,
August 1994).
Development
The
Demand for Money in Developing Countries: Assesing the Role of
Financial Innovation (with Patricio Arrau, Jose
DeGregorio, and Peter Wickham). A
shorter version appeared in Journal of Development Economics, Vol.
46, 1995, 317-340.
A
Model of Adjustment and Growth: An Empirical Analysis, in
Mohsin S. Khan, Peter Montiel, and Nadeem Ul Haque, eds. Macroeconomic
Models for Adjustment in Developing Countries, (Washington,
DC: International Monetary Fund, 1991), 10-37. (longer version).
A
Model of Adjustment and Growth,
IMF Staff Papers,
Vol. 37 No. 1, March 1990, 168-182.
Private
Investment and Economic Growth, (with Mohsin S. Khan), World
Development, Vol. 18 No. 1, January 1990, 19-27.
Shorter Papers and Commentary
The
Next (but not new) Frontier for Sovereign Default
in
www.VoxEU.org May 22, 2008.
Eight Hundred
Years of Financial Folly in
www.VoxEU.org April 19, 2008.
Reflections on the International Dimensions and Policy Lessons of
the U.S. Subprime Crisis
in
www.VoxEU.org, March 17, 2008.
Serial
Default and Its Remedies (with Kenneth S.
Rogoff) in Miguel Centeno, Harold James, and J. Londregan, eds. The Political
Economy of Recurrent Debt. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton Institute
for International and Regional Studies Monograph Series, Number 3,
2005). 4-18.
The
Realities of Modern Hyperinflation (with Miguel A.
Savastano), Finance and Development, (Washington DC:
International Monetary Fund, June 2003), 20-23.
Is
a G-3 Target Zone on Target for Emerging Markets? (with
Vincent R. Reinhart), Finance and Development, Vol. 39 No. 1,
(Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, March 2002), 17-19.
Reflections
on Dollarization, (with Guillermo A. Calvo), in Alberto
Alesina and Robert Barro (eds.), Currency Unions (Stanford: Hoover Institute Press, 2001), 39-47.
Capital
Flow Reversals, The Exchange Rate Debate, and Dollarization (with
Guillermo A. Calvo), Finance and Development, Vol. 36, No.3,
(Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, September 1999), 13-15.
